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Weather forecasts and their accuracy

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  • Weather forecasts and their accuracy

    At this time of the year I regulary used the http://www.bom.gov.au/ services to check the conditions for fishing and to get my gardening right.
    One thing I have noticed over the past years is that there simply is no accurate forcast (for Vic) that does not change on a daily base.
    For example, you chack on Sunday and it says rain and 17° for Monday, and mostly sunny and 26° for Tuesday.
    You check the same a day after and it says possible thunderstorms for Monday and ongoing rain for Tuesday....
    If you check again on Tuesday I says fine weather for the rest of the day and does not even mention any rain....

    Is it just me or is the weather forecast just utterly useless?
    I get the feeling that the only way to check is by looking into the sky and to check the weather radar...
    So far I have been unable to find any forecast system that does not change the predictions completely on a daily base...
    It is just hard to find any data that might tell you accurately how the weather will be tomorrow or the day after.

    Ok, I admit most people don't really care about that, but I have to ask myself:
    What is the use of paying a lot of money to people providing accurate weather forecasts if they can't get it right for the very next day anyway????
    '94 2.8TD, 2" lift, low mount winch, bullbar, roofrack, UHF, custom drawers, HID spotties, cam, GPS....
    Password for all my files: downunder

  • #2
    The 2 Most Accurate weather forecasts Aides for Me are 1. My Back, if it's Starts Aching the Weather is Changing for the Worse and Rain is On The Way! 2. The Gov Radar, I start 64km Radius and go out to National Images, that usually tells me whats going to happen in the next few days. I use the News/Weather Forcast as a Rough Guide Only.
    NP 05 Platinum Edition, 3.2 DiD Auto, Extra H/D 50mm Kings, Garmin GPS, Waeco 40, Turbo Smart Boost Gauge, Lambwool Covers, Kumo Tyres, Rock Sliders Pending, Surrey Downs Adelaide Sth Aust.

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    • #3
      Yes, nothing new with their inaccuracies. Probably my 2nd favorite site, apart from this site. Obviously must be difficult, but their computer models must be wrong at times, and they insist on a 7 day, and longer weather forecast. If it's incorrect they'll blame global warming, whether it be hotter or cooler than the 50 year average.
      Cheers, Tony.

      Silver Streak.

      2010 NT (Nov) Platinum Pajero, DiD auto, Iron Bark.
      Factory Tow-bar, Colour coded ARB Deluxe Bullbar, Hankook Dynopro RT03 MT Tyres, 265/R70x17, Bilstein/Lovell HD 2" lift kit, Bushskinz underbody protection plates, Navar Blue 225's, TJM Airtec Snorkel, Tinted Pajero Bonnet Protector, Uniden UH7750NB UHF-CB, Rhino Rack Sunseeker ll Awning (2.5m x 2m), Full Tint + UV film on privacy glass, Dash Mat, Techniice 60ltr Fridge/Freezer.

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      • #4
        Best weather reports I get are from the blokes that run the farm I work on.
        Whatever the season, they know the weather atleast 2days in advance and they are always bang on the money and never wrong.

        Just the other morning(around 10:30am) the radio said "looking like a top of 16c across the hunter today".....? Think they were quoting their air ducting temperature predictions cause it was already 25c and hit a high of 35c and I was only 20k's away from where they broadcast
        97' NK 3ltr GLX LWB Manual | 3" lift | Wildcat headers | K&N air filter | 2.8 crawl gears | 4Terrain clutch | 2.25" exhaust | Factory locker rear | TJM 10,000lb winch | TJM snorkel
        97' NL GLS LWB Auto | 6G75 3.8ltr | Redback Headers

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        • #5
          When I go out on the water I use BOM, Weatherzone, Willyweather, and even Aviation forecasts for the airports and an offshore rig around my area (freely available on the BOM site, and because I know how to read them).

          Generally, they all derive their data from BOM but use different forecasters and models to predict.

          I never rely on one. Chances are if they are all saying similar things then its *generally* going to be fairly accurate. But when you are out there, boating for example, always try get updates and keep an eye on the horizon all around you very often. It's normally the first and best sign of a change!
          '99 NL Escape, Manual - Bullbar, roofrack, cargo barrier, D697LT, Tough Dogs, dual batts, rear draws, Narva 225 HID, UHF, led bar etc
          Towing: 4.8m Savage Centurion half-cab w/75hp Mariner

          '99 NL GLS SWB, Auto - Bullbar, D697LT, spotties, UHF, Koni adjustables & King springs.

          Wanted: Adventure.

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          • #6
            I blame Tony Abbott.

            I he wasn't in denial we would be dealing with climate change, and have accurate weather forecasts.
            NT Platinum. DiD Auto with 265/70R17 ST Maxx, Lift, Lockers, Lockup Mate, Low range reduction, LRA Aux tank, bull bar, winch, lots of touring stuff. Flappy paddles. MMCS is gone!

            Project: NJ SWB. 285/75R16 ST Maxx, 2" OME suspension, 2" body lift, ARB 110, 120l tank, bullbar, scratches, no major dents. Fully engineered in SA. NW DiD & auto in place - a long way to go....

            Scorpro Explorer Box

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            • #7
              Have to remember that there is a difference between forecast and observation.

              You can bag BOM as much as you like but if you consider a forecast as a general trend over a large area them they're actually much more accurate than most people think they are. Let's put it this way: if BOM were forecasting Melbourne Cup winners I'd be backing their tips.
              Chris

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              • #8
                Get a weather string they're 100% accurate all year round
                PB MY12 LS Challenger, Auto, White.
                Window Tint, Hayman Reese Towpack, NudgeBar, BushSkinz Bash Plates, HID High Beam Kit, 28" LED Light Bar, Oricom UHF280, Maxxis 980 A/T, Lovells CRR-69 Springs, SPV EGR Mk3.1

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